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Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release or is Harley-Davidson due for a breakout

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG). Shares have lost about 10.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

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Harley-Davidson’s Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Down Y/Y

Harley-Davidson, Inc. delivered diluted earnings per share of 55 cents in third-quarter 2019, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents.  This outperformance resulted from the higher-than-expected sales in the firm’s motorcycle and related products segment. In the prior-year quarter, the figure had amounted to 78 cents per share.

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The company’s net income amounted to $86.6 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $113.9 million.

Total revenues declined 4.9% year over year to $1,069 million in the reported quarter. However, the revenue figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1037 million. The company reported consolidated revenues (including motorcycle sales and financial services revenues) of $1.27 billion, which declined from the prior-year quarter’s $1.32 billion.

Motorcycles and Related Products

In the third quarter, operating income from the Motorcycles and Related Products segment amounted to $46.97 million compared with the $65.66 million reported in the year-ago quarter. This downside primarily resulted from lower revenues and higher tariff costs, partially offset by savings realized from the company’s manufacturing-optimization initiative.

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In the quarter ending Sep 30, 2019, the company shipped 45,837 motorcycles compared with 48,639 in third-quarter 2018.

Harley-Davidson’s retail motorcycle units sold in the United States declined 3.6% to 34,903. International units sold increased 2.7% to 23,619 motorcycles from 23,006 in the prior-year quarter. Sales in the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Latin America declined 0.6% and 3.1%, respectively. In Asia Pacific and Canada, sales increased 8.7% and 4.4%, respectively.

Harley-Davidson’s worldwide retail motorcycle units sold edged down 1.2% to 58,522 from 59,226 in the year-ago quarter. Revenues in the Parts & Accessories segment fell 4.3% to $203 million. Moreover, the metric for General Merchandise — including Motor Clothes apparel and accessories — increased 3.4% to $60 million.

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Harley-Davidson Financial Services

Revenues for Harley-Davidson Financial Services (“HDFS”) amounted to $204 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $192 million. Operating income declined 13% to $72.9 million from $83.8 million in the year-ago quarter. The debt-to capital ratio stands at 71.5% at the end of the quarter.

Financial Position

Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of 862 million as of Sep 29, 2019, compared with $927 million as of Sep 30, 2018. Net long-term debt increased to $4,607 million from $4197 million as of Sep 30, 2018.
As of Sep 29, 2019 the company’s net operating cash inflow was $848 million compared with $1122 million as of Sep 30, 2018. Capital expenditure was $121 million compared with $119 million recorded in the prior-year period.

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Looking Forward

For 2019, Harley-Davidson has reiterated its full-year motorcycle shipment projection in the range of 212,000-217,000 motorcycles. For fourth-quarter 2019, it expects motorcycle shipments to be approximately 38,500 to 43,500.

The motorcycles segment operating margin, as a percentage of revenues, is expected in the band of 6-7% for the full year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted -32.75% due to these changes.

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VGM Scores

Currently, Harley-Davidson has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

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