No, as per Trefis Price estimate Harley-Davidson’s (NYSE: HOG) stock has a fair value of $37, which is in line with the current market price. Harley-Davidson Motor Company was founded in 1903, and specializes in heavyweight (601cc+) cruiser and touring motorcycles. Harley-Davidson’s major competitors are Triumph, Yamaha, Ducati, and Royal Enfield brands. In the industry the principal factors that determine consumer vehicle preferences in the markets would include overall vehicle design, price, quality, available options, reliability, and functionality.
In this note we discuss our stock price valuation for Harley-Davidson. You can look at our interactive dashboard analysis ~ Harley-Davidson Valuation: Cheap or Expensive? ~ for more details, and also modify our forecasts for the company’s key metrics to understand how changes impact the company’s stock price.
#1. Estimating Harley-Davidson’s Total Revenues:
- Total Revenue decreased from $6 billion in 2016 to $5.7 billion in 2018, and is expected to fall by 6.6% to $5.3 Billion in 2019.
- The fall is expected due to shrinking market of heavy motorcycles in the US as well as due to the global auto slowdown.
- Our Interactive Dashboard Analysis, How Does Harley-Davidson Make Money?, provides an in depth view of the Harley-Davidson’s Revenues.
#2. Deriving Harley’s Net Income:
- Net Income fell from $692.2 million in 2016 to $531.5 million in 2018, and is expected to be around $439.1 million in 2019.
- This fall will likely be led by a decrease in margins and lower revenues.
#3. Determining Harley-Davidson’s EPS:
- EPS has fallen from $3.83 in 2016 to $3.21 in 2018, and we estimate it to be $2.81 in 2019
- EPS fall from 2018 can be attributed to lower Net Income offset by lower Shares outstanding.
#4. Estimating Harley’s Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $37 for Harley-Davidson’s Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 13.2x P/E Multiple on expected 2019 EPS of $2.81. Our interactive dashboard captures how Harley-Davidson compares with its competitors Honda and Yamaha in terms of Revenue and P/E multiple.
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6 responses to “Many are starting to wonder if Harley-Davidson maintains it’s value as a company”
“Its” not “it’s”. The first denotes ownership; the second is a contraction for “it is”. Hope this helps.
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Harley Davidson is in serious trouble due to their on making. Harleys are expensive to get and very expensive to keep. Long time rides like myself still ride but refuse to pay $25000 for a motorcycle. I have two Harleys both bought used due the the crazy price of a new bike. I also do my own service. To service your bike at the dealership cost around $400 and when I say service I am taking about changing the fluids. The prices at the dealership for service along with the price of the bike is hurting Harley. They attempt to come out with new models which everyone can see is and old model with no chrome. New model means higher price. Your not fooling anyone. The only thing that will sell Harleys is a reasonable price which Harley refuses to do. Harley has screwed their long time riders for so long, the trend down might Never stop. O well, buy Harley.
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No one is buying HD it only the 40 plus that can afford them
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No one is buying HD it only the 40 plus that can afford them
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It’s a dying breed! Give me a silent electric bike that is much faster, lighter and that I can hookup a solar panel to.
Screw Harley I won’t support this brand nor the kinds of people I saw buying them!
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Well us kind of people would like to know why you feel the need to comment on a platform that you have no interest in. You Hate the people and the brand. You’ve probably never even met a biker and you are throwing everyone in the same pot as according to your standards and obvious intelligence! We are all waiting for your next words of wisdom as we have so much to learn from you.
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